Q5 The Secret Quarter Business’Are Missing
Most retailers shut down their marketing on 26 December. Teams take time off, budgets are exhausted, and the assumption
Most retailers shut down their marketing on 26 December. Teams take time off, budgets are exhausted, and the assumption is that consumers stop shopping once Christmas ends. The data says otherwise. Salesforce tracked $1.2 trillion in global holiday retail sales through January 2025, with spending continuing well into the new year. Google research shows that 92% of consumers plan to keep shopping after 25 December, with 87% of post-Christmas sales browsing sessions ending in a purchase. Meanwhile, advertising costs drop by 27% to 35% as major brands pause campaigns.
This period from late December through mid-January has a name in marketing circles: Q5, the quarter that technically doesn’t exist but generates billions in revenue for brands paying attention. In markets where Boxing Day holds cultural significance, like the UK, Canada, and Australia, 26 December drives massive spending. UK shoppers spent £4.6 billion on Boxing Day 2024. But the phenomenon isn’t limited to Commonwealth countries. American consumers redeem gift cards, exchange unwanted presents, and shop New Year sales. Adobe Analytics projects 56.1% of holiday online revenue will come from mobile devices during the 2025 season, with traffic remaining elevated through early January.
The opportunity exists because retail operates on outdated assumptions. The traditional model views holiday shopping as ending on Christmas Eve. Modern consumer behaviour doesn’t follow that pattern. Shopping motivations shift after Christmas, from buying gifts for others to purchasing for yourself, but the spending continues across most developed markets.
Why Advertising Gets Cheaper
Meta CPMs fall from £19.23 in late November to £13.65 by late December, a 27% reduction. Instagram sees drops from £20.34 to £13.24, down 35%. TikTok CPMs in January 2025 hit £4.20. Google Ads inventory opens up as competitors stop bidding on keywords. Display rates plummet across publisher networks globally.
This happens for straightforward reasons. Major brands exhaust marketing budgets by December. Annual spending caps get hit. Teams go on holiday. January budgets haven’t been approved yet. The competitive pressure that drove costs up during Black Friday and the pre-Christmas rush simply disappears, leaving cheaper inventory for brands still operating.
The economics matter more as costs rise. PwC found 84% of US consumers plan to cut back on spending over the next six months, citing inflation and cost of living pressures. Canadian consumers expect to spend 5% less this holiday season compared to 2024. When every dollar of ad spend matters, a 35% reduction in acquisition costs can determine profitability.
What Drives Post-Christmas Sales
Gift cards account for substantial spending across markets. Nearly 60% of recipients spend more than the card’s value, turning $50 gifts into $75 purchases. TikTok data shows 38% of users specifically plan to shop during this period to redeem holiday gift cards. These aren’t casual browsers. They’re consumers with money allocated for purchases, actively looking for where to spend it.
Returns and exchanges drive additional traffic. Shoppers who received unwanted gifts return them for store credit, then browse for alternatives. Salesforce reports $122 billion in merchandise was returned globally following the 2024 holiday season, a 28% increase in return rates. Approximately 40% will switch retailers if their preferred item is out of stock during returns, creating acquisition opportunities for brands with inventory.
New Year psychology amplifies demand. The “new year, new me” mindset drives purchases in specific categories across cultures. According to TikTok’s research, 79% of users plan to keep shopping in Q5, focusing on fitness equipment, self-care products, educational materials, and organisational tools. Consumers see January as a reset moment, creating demand for products that support fresh starts and resolutions.
Post-Christmas sales also capture delayed holiday spending. Consumer spending actually peaks after 25 December, according to Google’s data across multiple markets. Shoppers buy more items across more categories in late December and early January than during the pre-Christmas rush. Some people intentionally wait for post-holiday discounts. Others shop for items they didn’t receive as gifts.
The Mobile Reality
Mobile dominance intensifies during post-Christmas sales periods globally. Adobe Analytics projects 56.1% of online revenue will come from mobile devices during the 2025 holiday season, with 7 in 10 retail site visits occurring on mobile. Salesforce found mobile orders hit their highest level on Christmas Day, accounting for 79% of all orders. January typically sees increased mobile traffic as consumers browse on new devices received as gifts.
Buy Online Pickup In Store becomes critical during late December and early January. One-third of online orders use BOPIS during this period to avoid shipping delays. 48% of consumers choose BOPIS to avoid shipping fees, while 85% buy additional items in-store during pickup. This behaviour turns fulfilment into a sales channel, but only for retailers with inventory accuracy and staffing to support it.
Australian research from Monash University found 86% of shoppers still prefer physical stores for Christmas purchases, even as online shopping returned to pandemic levels at 82%. The preference for brick-and-mortar shopping remained strong across product categories. This suggests omnichannel strategies matter more than pure digital plays, particularly in markets outside the US.
Regional Patterns
Post-Christmas sales behaviours vary across markets. Commonwealth countries demonstrate particularly strong 26 December engagement. UK shoppers spent £4.6 billion on Boxing Day 2024, making it one of the busiest shopping days of the entire year. British consumers flock to physical stores, treating it as a major retail event. Canadian shoppers show similar patterns, though recent data suggests Black Friday performing 45% better in conversions than Boxing Day, indicating shifting preferences.
The United States approaches 26 December differently. American retailers view it primarily as a returns and gift card redemption day rather than a major sales event. Post-Christmas sales certainly happen, but without the cultural significance Boxing Day holds elsewhere. This creates opportunities for US brands to capitalise on reduced competition while their Commonwealth counterparts battle intensely for Boxing Day sales.
Mastercard data covering the US, Canada, UK, and UAE found 82% of consumers prioritise value for money as their top purchase driver. Nearly 78% seek less expensive alternatives, while 65% anticipate waiting for deeper post-holiday discounts. This value-seeking behaviour appears consistent across developed markets, though expressed differently based on local shopping traditions.
European markets show mixed patterns. UK retail sales forecast to hit £91.12 billion for Christmas 2025 outperform other major European countries. Germany ranks second, but post-Christmas behaviours differ significantly. Mintel’s analysis of UK, US, and Germany found optimism varies by market, with younger consumers in all three countries showing more willingness to spend despite economic pressures.
Category Opportunities
Certain categories see disproportionate demand during post-Christmas sales globally. Fitness and wellness products surge as consumers commit to New Year’s resolutions. Home organisation and storage solutions spike as people declutter and reorganise spaces. Electronics and technology benefit from gift card spending and people upgrading devices received as gifts.
Fashion and beauty perform strongly as consumers treat themselves after weeks of buying for others. 67% of TikTok users plan to buy products for themselves during Q5, focusing heavily on self-care categories. Gaming sees particularly strong post-Christmas activity as new console owners purchase games and accessories. Mobile gaming benefits from inventory spikes as gifted devices come online.
Travel bookings increase significantly during early January as consumers plan holidays for the coming year. Educational products and online courses see demand from resolution-driven shoppers. Finance and personal development categories benefit from “new year, new start” psychology driving behaviour change attempts.
Mastercard found nearly six in ten consumers admit to buying gifts for themselves while shopping for others, with 61% purchasing items just to reach free shipping minimums. This self-gifting behaviour intensifies after Christmas when social pressure to buy for others diminishes.
The Operational Challenge
Executing successful post-Christmas sales requires operational preparation that begins during Q4. Extending return windows, such as accepting returns through 15 or 31 January, reduces support tickets while maintaining customer goodwill across markets.
Inventory management becomes critical. Retailers need sufficient stock to fulfil post-Christmas sales demand while avoiding excess that creates markdown pressure later. 57% of retailers report low stock as a moderate to severe problem, yet consumer spending remains elevated. This mismatch creates lost sales for unprepared retailers.
Staffing presents challenges as post-Christmas sales overlap with holiday time off across most markets. Retailers must balance giving teams deserved breaks with maintaining operations during a high-value period. Solutions include automation wherever possible, preparing campaigns in advance with scheduled launches, and selective staffing of critical functions.
Creative refreshes matter. November creative feels stale by January. Post-Christmas sales campaigns need fresh messaging that acknowledges the new year rather than recycling holiday themes. Messaging should shift from gift-giving to self-purchasing, from holiday cheer to fresh starts, from family focus to individual benefits.
How To Win Q5
Successful post-Christmas sales strategies require specific tactical execution. Reserve 15% to 20% of Q4 marketing budgets specifically for late December through mid-January. If spending $50,000 during November and December, allocate $7,500 to $10,000 for Q5. Better yet, front-load Q1 budgets into this period when costs are lower and consumer intent remains elevated.
Segment audiences aggressively based on Q4 behaviour. Identify customers who purchased but haven’t engaged since. Target those who redeemed loyalty points or shopped at discounts. Create specific campaigns for gift card holders. Email marketing becomes particularly effective as inbox competition drops while list sizes remain large post-Q4.
Platform tactics vary. On Meta and Instagram, continue retargeting campaigns but exclude purchasers, targeting browsers who didn’t convert. Create lookalike audiences from holiday buyers. Test new creative that speaks to self-gifting and fresh starts. On TikTok, leverage shopping content that peaks in January with user-generated content and creator partnerships. On Google, bid up on high-intent keywords as competition decreases.
Product recommendations should highlight items that complement likely gifts. Someone who received a new camera probably needs memory cards, cases, or lenses. A new fitness tracker owner likely wants workout clothes or equipment. Use “complete the look” modules on product pages to increase average order value.
Loyalty programmes provide leverage during post-Christmas sales. Salesforce found 72% of US shoppers say loyalty programmes make them more likely to continue doing business with brands. Offer exclusive early access to sales for members. Provide bonus points on post-holiday purchases. The goal is converting holiday shoppers into year-round customers.
The Window Closes
Post-Christmas sales won’t remain overlooked forever. Platforms actively promote Q5 because their data proves its value. TikTok publishes extensive Q5 guidance. Google produces detailed post-holiday shopper insights. Meta highlights the cost advantages. As awareness spreads, more brands will allocate resources to this period, gradually eroding the competitive advantages currently available.
In three years, Q5 won’t be an opportunity. It’ll be standard practice. Smart retailers are already building it into annual strategies, treating late December through mid-January as a distinct season rather than dead air. The question isn’t whether post-Christmas sales will become crowded. It’s whether you’ll establish position before everyone else figures it out.
First-mover advantage matters because consumer behaviour and platform algorithms reward consistency. Brands that build Q5 expertise now will have refined targeting, creative strategies, and operational processes by the time competitors enter the space. Market dynamics will shift as adoption increases. CPMs won’t drop 35% when every brand runs campaigns.
Retailers planning 2026 should rethink budget allocation across the year. Instead of concentrating spend into traditional peak periods, distribute more evenly across identified high-value windows including post-Christmas sales. Build Q5 into annual calendars from the beginning. Schedule creative development during Q3. Plan inventory levels that support both traditional holiday and post-Christmas sales demand. Structure team time off to ensure coverage during late December and early January.
Test and learn. The 2025 post-Christmas sales period provides data for refining 2026 strategies. Track which segments respond best. Measure which creative themes drive strongest engagement. Analyse which platforms deliver best return.
